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Novartis’ ($NVS) blockbuster drug, Gilenya®, is facing an onslaught of prospective generic competition.  In response, Novartis has wielded one of its patents – the ‘405 patent.  The patent survived an IPR challenge, and that decision has been appealed to the Federal Circuit.  The appeal is fully briefed and heard oral argument earlier this year in January.  If Novartis prevails in the appeal, that means it could potentially exclude generics until the ‘405 patent expires in 2027.  What is the likelihood Novartis will prevail?